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Lights On, Nobody Home

01/09/2026

Infographic: after midnight, keep town centres, busy junctions, crash blackspots, late-shift walking routes and CCTV areas lit; dim or switch off quiet residential streets, low-speed rural roads and empty cul-de-sacs. Design it street by street.

Drive through Brightwater at two in the morning and you will see a district lit up for a crowd that went to bed hours ago. Every pole burning, every cul-de-sac, every stretch of rural road where the only traffic between midnight and dawn is a possum and the milk tanker. We are paying to do that. We are paying for the power, we are paying for the shorter life it puts on the lanterns, and that bill comes out of the same pot as the roads and the pipes. On top of it we are paying a quieter price — the night sky over one of the few districts in the country that still has one worth looking at. Tasman District Council is responsible for around 3,800 street lights. Before the next Long Term Plan tells us there is no money for anything, it is worth asking whether all of them need to be on at full output all night.

Start with the money, because that is where a council argument lives or dies. Tasman changed its street light strategy in 2015 and converted the network to LED, and the council’s own Transportation Activity Management Plan puts the saving at $5.95 million in maintenance and power costs over thirty years against carrying on as before — and it calls those energy assumptions conservative. Good. That was the easy win, and it is banked. But the same plan said something else that has quietly gone nowhere. It noted that the new LED fittings make a centralised management system possible “as an optional extra”, and that such a system “can enable greater energy savings through controlling levels of light output to where and when it is required, eg, light dimming between midnight and dawn instead of all lights operating at full output throughout the hours of darkness”. Those are the council’s own words. “Future consideration will be given,” it said. That was in the 2018 plan. The 10-Year Plan 2024–2034 does not mention dimming, part-night lighting or a management system anywhere. Six years, and “future consideration” has produced nothing you can point to. A good idea identified by staff, minuted, and left to gather dust. Business as usual.

How much would it save here? That is exactly the figure the council should have to put on the table, and hasn’t. Waka Kotahi’s guidance is that an LED street light can cut up to about 60 per cent of the old power bill, and that dimming it through a central management system can lift the total energy saving to as much as 70 per cent. Nelson City ran the same LED conversion and expects to save around $200,000 a year in power and maintenance. The dimming layer on top is real money, every year, on top of money already saved, and it comes with lanterns that last longer because they spend half the night at half output.

Cornwall Council in England has already done it. It turns off street lights between midnight and 5am across minor and residential roads, dims the rest, and keeps full lighting in town centres with a night-time economy, on main distributor roads, and anywhere covered by CCTV. Stated saving: about £680,000 a year. Street lighting, on their figures, makes up close to 30 per cent of the whole council’s carbon footprint. Somerset, Dorset, Shropshire and Coventry run part-night schemes on the same midnight-to-dawn pattern. France went further in 2018 and did it by law — new outdoor lights capped at 3000 Kelvin, tight limits on light thrown upward, and curfews on shop-window, office and advertising lighting. The French government’s own figures show a 19 per cent drop in exposure to serious light pollution across mainland France between 2014 and 2023. This is not a fringe idea. It is what councils do when someone finally looks at the power bill.

Now the objection, because it is a fair one and it deserves a straight answer rather than a brush-off. Some submitters and some councillors will say a darker district is a more dangerous one — for the nurse coming off a late shift, for the hospitality worker walking home at eleven, for any woman who has ever had to think about the walk from the car to the front door. That fear is real and it is not irrational, and any policy that waves it away deserves to fail.

So what does the evidence actually say? The largest controlled study of this in the UK is Steinbach and colleagues, published in 2015, which looked at 62 local authorities across England and Wales and compared areas that had switched off, gone part-night, dimmed, or changed to white light against areas that hadn’t. On night-time road crashes it found no measurable change from any of those strategies — switch-off came in at a rate ratio of 0.97, part-night 0.95, dimming almost exactly 1.0, with confidence intervals straddling “no effect” in every case. On crime, same story: no detectable rise in total crime under part-night lighting or dimming, and a weak hint that dimming and white light went with slightly less crime. One strand of the analysis did throw up a faint, statistically shaky suggestion of more robbery under part-night lighting — worth saying, but it did not reach significance. The same project’s cost-benefit work concluded part-night lighting “may represent a large net benefit”. A separate randomised trial in New York public housing, by Chalfin and colleagues, is the honest counterweight: putting bright lighting into places that were genuinely dark and high-risk cut night-time outdoor crime by at least 36 per cent. And closer to home, Waka Kotahi’s Economic Evaluation Manual assumes that improving poor road lighting cuts crashes by about 35 per cent, and before-and-after studies here and overseas show reductions of around 30 per cent or more; a New Zealand study by Jackett and Frith found a clear relationship between how well a road is lit and its night-time crash rate.

Put those together and the answer is not “darkness is safe.” It is narrower than that: adding light where it was genuinely missing and dangerous does real good, and dimming or killing a light nobody is using at 3am on an empty residential street does no harm anyone has been able to measure. Those two findings only look like a contradiction if you think this is all-or-nothing. It isn’t. Nobody serious is proposing Tasman go fully dark. The proposal is to keep the lighting where people actually are after midnight — Richmond’s centre, the state highway junctions, the known crash blackspots, the routes between late workplaces and the bus stops, the CCTV areas — and dim or switch off the rest.

Infographic: after midnight, keep town centres, busy junctions, crash blackspots, late-shift walking routes and CCTV areas lit; dim or switch off quiet residential streets, low-speed rural roads and empty cul-de-sacs. Design it street by street.

The evidence does carry one real cost, and it should be named. In that same English research, residents living under part-night lighting said they felt less safe walking alone at night, even where the crime and crash numbers had not moved. That matters. It changes whether people go out on foot at all, and it does not land evenly — it lands hardest on women. A council that waves that away is not being brave, it is being careless. The answer is not to drop the idea; it is to design it properly. Keep the pedestrian routes lit. Consult the people who do the late walk before you draw the map, not after. And where lights do go off, say so publicly and say why, rather than letting people discover it by walking into it. The places that got this wrong flicked a switch across the whole network with no exceptions and no warning. England’s national highways agency reversed its overnight motorway switch-offs in 2018 after casualties on unlit stretches jumped. The AA, the loudest critic of switch-offs, says street-light reductions have been recorded at inquests as a contributory factor in eleven road deaths since 2009, and that in blackout areas 35 per cent of people feel less safe after dark, rising to 43 per cent among women. But look at what the AA actually asks for: full lighting kept on where the speed limit is 40mph and over — about 65km/h here — and on slower residential streets, lights that were switched off turned back on with energy-saving technology “unless residents specifically request otherwise”. Even the loudest critic of switch-offs is arguing about which roads and what technology, not about whether to touch the network at all. Doing it badly is worse than not doing it. That is an argument for doing it carefully, not for leaving every light burning at full power until dawn.

Then there is the part that doesn’t show up on the power bill. Tasman District Council owns the Wai-iti Dark Sky Park near Wakefield — 135 hectares of council land recognised in July 2020 as the first International Dark Sky Park accredited in New Zealand. The council already tells the world that the night sky here is an asset worth protecting and worth visiting. Aoraki Mackenzie has built a genuine tourism economy on exactly that. Meanwhile the glow off Richmond and Motueka climbs into the same sky every night. Worldwide, the rate at which stars are disappearing from view puts the increase in skyglow at close to 10 per cent a year — fast enough to double in under a decade — and the Milky Way is already invisible to more than a third of humanity. A council that has staked a claim on dark skies and then floodlights its own empty streets until dawn is working against itself.

The wildlife side of this is not sentimental either. A 2021 study found street lighting cut the number of moth caterpillars in roadside hedgerows by around half, worse under white LED than under the old sodium lamps — among the first field evidence that street lights are pushing down wild insect numbers, and insects are what everything else eats. The Department of Conservation has published advice on keeping artificial light away from pekapeka, our native bats, which call less and avoid flying where it is lit. New Zealand research has documented the same avoidance in wētā and links between coastal lighting and seabird groundings. DOC runs a campaign asking people to dim lights for migrating birds. The council’s own draft Environment Plan already proposes to “introduce controls to maintain and enhance the darkness of the night sky”, naming upward light spill, colour temperature and “curfews / time limits on some lighting”. If rules like that can bind a farmer’s security light, they can bind the council’s own network.

The health question is the least settled, so take it as caution rather than alarm. Blue-rich white light at night suppresses melatonin, and the American Medical Association in 2016 told councils to use warmer light — 3000 Kelvin or lower — shield it, and dim it where they can. The lighting industry disputed parts of that report. But warmer, shielded and dimmed off-peak is now the mainstream position; the warmer and shielded part is written into French law, alongside curfews on advertising and building lighting, and it costs nothing to adopt when lanterns are being replaced anyway.

So where does the cost-benefit land? On the side of turning the lights down. Dim the network after midnight, switch off the quiet residential and rural roads, keep the lighting where people genuinely are after dark — and you save money every year, with no rise in crashes or crime in the largest controlled study of it. It cuts carbon. It protects a night sky the council already markets to visitors. It eases the pressure on the native wildlife the council is already spending money to bring back. The costs are real but manageable: design it around the late-shift walk, tell people plainly where and why, and keep it well clear of the fast roads where darkness does cost lives. Do it as a blunt all-lights-off switch and it will fail, and deserve to. Do it street by street, with the map drawn by the people who use these routes at night, and it is one of the cleaner wins on the table — permanent savings, no repeated fight, and a sky worth stepping outside to look at.

The lights are on tonight over streets where nobody is home, burning at full power, and we are paying for every one of them. The council’s own plan raised dimming them years ago and then let it sit. So the question for this Council, before the next round of “there is no money”, is a simple one: a district that owns a Dark Sky Park, that is already writing night-sky rules for everyone else’s lights, and that was told by its own engineers six years ago that the fittings could already do this — what exactly is it waiting for?

Filed Under: Environment, Spending, Transport

The Science Was Settled. Until It Wasn’t.

19/05/2026

climate change, the science is settled

Here is a sentence that should have made the front page of every newspaper in the Western world last month. It did not.

climate change, the science is settled
The Science is Settled

Scientists writing in the journal Geoscientific Model Development formally declared that the IPCC’s headline worst-case climate scenario — the one projecting 4 to 5 degrees of warming by 2100, the one that underpinned a generation of extinction predictions, net-zero urgency, and a significant portion of the economic restructuring of the developed world — is “implausible.”

Not revised. Not updated in light of new data. Implausible. Their word, not mine.

The scenario in question is called RCP8.5. If you have read anything about climate change in the last 15 years — and you have — you have been consuming its outputs. The melting glaciers, the crop failures, the catastrophic sea level rises, the species extinction modelling, the Davos briefings, the school strikes. All of it was anchored, to some degree, in a model that assumed coal consumption would increase roughly sixfold by 2100. A model that critics — actual scientists, not bloggers — have been calling implausible since at least 2019. A model that the World Economic Forum was still using as recently as 2020 to show audiences what “more than 4°C of warming” would do to the planet.

It is now officially dead. Euronews reported this morning that the new worst-case ceiling has been cut by a full degree Celsius.

Positive revision, apparently.


Now, Donald Trump. I am going to ask you to set aside whatever you feel about the man for the next two minutes, because the truth does not care about your feelings toward the messenger.

On Saturday he posted this on Truth Social:

“GOOD RIDDANCE! After 15 years of Dumocrats promising that ‘Climate Change’ is going to destroy the Planet, the United Nations TOP Climate Committee just admitted that its own projections (RCP8.5) were WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!”

He is not wrong. The spelling is creative, the caps lock is doing considerable work, and the political framing is nakedly self-serving. But the underlying claim — that the IPCC’s flagship doomsday scenario has been admitted to be wrong — is factually accurate. Unusually for him, he was also early. He has been saying this since before it became institutionally acceptable to say it.

The people now scrambling to contextualise the revision have landed on a story: we updated the models because renewables got cheaper and emissions are tracking below the worst-case. In other words, the policy worked. Science in motion. Nothing to see here.

This explanation deserves a little scrutiny. The RCP8.5 scenario was never described as a policy-failure scenario. It was described as “business as usual.” It was the baseline. What happens if we do nothing. Roger Pielke Jr., a climate scientist who votes Democrat and has been making this specific argument since 2019 — and who has been dismissed and attacked for making it — wrote this week that RCP8.5 is now officially dead. He has been right about this for years. He was not thanked for it.

The idea that the revision is a clean success story for climate policy requires you to believe that coal consumption was always on track to increase sixfold, and only heroic intervention stopped it. The alternative explanation — that the scenario was always a stress test dressed up as a projection, used to generate urgency that the actual science did not quite support — is not one you will find prominently featured in the coverage.

The science is settled, climate change is real and we are all going to die. Familiar positions taken from around the council table. It is costing you hundreds of thousands as a rate payer to fight the impending doom – that apparently isn’t.


Here in New Zealand, this matters. We restructured agricultural emissions policy around urgency derived in significant part from these projections. We told farmers they were going to cook the planet. We built an Emissions Trading Scheme, set methane targets, and began a legal and economic overhaul of the primary sector on a timeline calibrated to scenarios the IPCC has now formally walked back. Some of that policy may well have been worth doing regardless. But the urgency — the you-have-no-choice-and-no-time framing that shut down debate — was borrowed from models that were, to use the technical term, implausible.

It is worth asking who decided that was an acceptable way to run public policy. And it is worth asking what other assumptions, baked into the modelling that shaped a decade of New Zealand legislation, are similarly due for a quiet revision.

To be precise about what I am not saying: I am not saying climate change is not real, or that warming is not happening, or that doing nothing is a sensible policy. The IPCC still projects meaningful warming under its revised scenarios. The risks are real and the direction of travel is not good. What I am saying is that there is a meaningful difference between “we face a serious challenge that requires considered policy responses” and “we face extinction and anyone who questions the models is a denier.” The first is defensible. The second was never fully supported by the science, and the institutions responsible for the second owe the public a more honest accounting than a quietly updated journal paper.

Trump said “WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!” He is not the messenger anyone would have chosen. But on this occasion, he is pointing at something real.

The least the institutions involved could do is say so directly, in plain language, without the journal paywall.

  • Read the Geoscientific Model Development paper here.
  • Trump’s full statement via Climate Depot.
  • WEF’s 2020 worst-case scenario briefing.
  • Roger Pielke Jr. on RCP8.5 being officially dead.

Filed Under: Environment, Spending Tagged With: climate change, global warming, science is settled

Tasman Environment

12/08/2019

Tasman environment and climate change

ENVIRONMENT

Tasman is world renown for our stunning landscapes, but we need to encourage smarter use of our environment for a sustainable future so that generations to come can also enjoy the Tasman experience. We all need to step up including Farming, Business, Tourism, and Residential households in the products we use, the way we treat our natural resources, and the flora and fauna we share the planet with.

Tasman environment and climate change

Are you ready to see change in Tasman?

Would you like to see us protect our rapidly disappearing variety of life? Tasman is home to a number of species on the endangered, and critically endangered species list. We can act now save them or we let them slide into extinction.

It sounds like an obvious choice, but it may require taking action that restricts our “rights” as Kiwis. We may have to give up our right to racing along beaches in vehicles or taking our dogs to beaches and letting them roam free. We may have to give up our right to camp anywhere we like whenever we like.

What are the benefits, apart from saving a few birds and bugs or some plants we don’t know the name of anyway?

Tasman is one of the few regions in New Zealand with significant environments of interest that does not capitalize on this opportunity. We have national parks and we have freedom campers. We do not promote Kiwis (the bird) like Rotorua, or Whales like Kaikoura, or Penguins like Oamaru, or the Gannets of Cape Kidnappers. But why don’t we?

Eco-tourism is far more lucrative than allowing freedom camping. The money generated from eco-tourism not only creates work opportunities, it also allows for more work to be done to protect and enhance our endangered species. Is that worth a conversation about maybe giving up some of our “rights”? 

STATE OF CLIMATE EMERGENCY

I do not believe making declarations of emergency is as effective as implementing a strategy of improving how we live. We can do better and we need to do better. Let’s just work together and get it done.

Why, I don’t support a state of emergency.

  1. I absolutely support spending money to reduce our waste to landfill and to protect our endangered flora and fauna. I do not support the generation of endless reports costing huge amounts of money that would be better spent making an actual difference in building a sustainable future.
  2. I do not support the use of emergency in this context. In 2006 Al Gore said we would reach “the point of no return” by 2016 labelling it a “true planetary emergency.”  We have missed the boat according to Al.
    If we keep calling labelling things an emergency that are decades away then what do we call an imminent emergency? It is like all the hi-viz and orange cones on a work site nowadays it all becomes background noise, or like the little boy who cried wolf.
  3. There is also the fact that a “state of emergency” gives the Government of the ability to step in and take control. They may exercise full military lockdown or evacuation (like Wakefield during the recent fire state of emergency) and sequestration of whatever resources and supplies they deem necessary. Be careful what you wish for.
  4. We have soaring rates of youth suicide and one of the reasons quoted is this feeling of despair that we are all doomed. I do not support treating our youth as political pawns to the point they are taking their own lives in despair. When I was a teenager there was the threat of peak oil and then the imminent threat of nuclear holocaust being thrust upon us, fortunately, there wasn’t the internet compounding the issue back then.

What can we do then?

While it is easy to blame agriculture, forestry and other land use for greenhouse gas emissions. And they may be responsible for 23 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions according to the recent IPCC survey.

But food waste is also a major culprit, according to a new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

From 2010-2016, global food loss and waste contributed 8-10 percent of total anthropogenic GHG emissions and currently 25-30 percent of total food produced is lost or wasted, says the  IPCC report on climate change and land. 

This is something that we all can do to immediately affect the amount of emissions adding to climate change. It doesn’t require more reports and endless debates at huge expense. Don’t reinvent wheel just take action.

Join other voters for a practical response to Climate Change and Environmental Issues this election.

Filed Under: Environment, Resources Tagged With: Dean McNamara, Tasman environment

Introducing Dean

Dean McNamara Husband, father, and a fourth generation local from rural Tasman. No longer acting as your voice on the Tasman District Council (TDC). More about me.

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